A leading economic indicator: skid marks



A lot of people make a lot of money trying to forecast the economy.  In fact, if we quit paying economists and they found something productive to do, we'd probably have those flying cars by now.  It's hard for a fiscal soothsayer to stand out, so they'll pick anything to make their report look, or smell, different.

Of course not every report is all that useful.  Some have some big holes in them.  Well, having holes might not be such a bad thing - it may be just what we wanted to know!

"Blue Chip, White Cotton: What Underwear Says About the Economy"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/
"Here's the theory, briefly: Sales of men's underwear typically are stable because they rank as a necessity. But during times of severe financial strain, men will try to stretch the time between buying new pairs, causing underwear sales to dip.  "It's a prolonged purchase," said Marshal Cohen, senior analyst with the consumer research firm NPD Group. "It's like trying to drive your car an extra 10,000 miles." "

So the guy next to you doesn't just have a pair in his pants, he now has a TLA.  They call it the MUI, the 'men's underwear index'.  And the good news is that the index is showing some firmness in the elastic.

"This year, Mintel expects sales to fall 2.3 percent, the first drop since the company started collecting data in 2003.  But the men's underwear index -- or, conveniently, MUI -- may also have a silver lining. Mintel predicts that next year, men's underwear sales will fall by 0.5 percent, and as with many economic indicators, a slowing of a decline can be welcomed as a step in the right direction."

Ladies, we need your help.  Retail orders are a good start, but we need real seat-of-the-pants research on this.  So please, walk over to that pasty guy in accounting and look sweetly into his eyes as you ask to get into his pants.  Once you get a peek at the packaging, write down some notes and walk away without saying anything.  Trust me, the guy will never mention it to anyone, and we'll get the important data we need to support our model.

One warning: if it turns out that the surprisingly well-hung engineering department has given up and gone commando, stock up on ammo and bottled water.  It's gonna get bad!